Planning

eaching probability in primary classrooms introduces students to the language of chance, prediction, and fairness. Through play, experimentation, and discussion, learners begin to understand that some outcomes are certain, some are possible, and others are unlikely or impossible.

The A+ Teacher Club Guides to Teaching unpack the Probability Strand of the mathematics curriculum step by step. Created by numeracy coach Vikki Longthorn, these guides show teachers what to teach, when to teach it, and how to build deep understanding so students can reason about chance and uncertainty with confidence.

Part of the How to Teach Maths in Primary Classrooms series.

What Is the Probability Strand About?

The Probability Strand focuses on developing students’ ability to describe and reason about chance and uncertainty.
It helps learners recognise that not all events have predictable outcomes and that probability language helps us express how likely an event is to occur.

Probability begins in Year 3.
In Foundation to Year 2, students explore data and statistics, learning to collect and represent information, but they do not formally study chance. From Year 3 onwards, the concept of probability is introduced as part of the Statistics and Probability strand.

Students learn to:

• Identify and describe possible outcomes of everyday events.
• Use words such as certain, likely, unlikely, and impossible to describe chance.
• Conduct simple experiments and record results.
• Compare outcomes and reason about fairness.
• Begin to quantify probability using informal fractions or proportions.

As they progress, students move from describing events qualitatively (“It might rain today”) to recognising patterns in data and making informed predictions.

Why Teaching Probability Matters

Probability connects mathematics to everyday decision-making.
Students constantly encounter chance — from predicting the weather and spinning a game wheel to understanding statistics in sport or health.

Teaching probability effectively helps students:

• Build critical thinking and reasoning about uncertainty.
• Recognise patterns and variation in data.
• Understand and question ideas of fairness and randomness.
• Apply mathematical language to real-life contexts.

Early experiences with probability build intuitive understanding that supports later statistical reasoning, proportional thinking, and data analysis.

How the Probability Strand Connects to the Curriculum

Mathematics in the Australian Curriculum v9 is organised into six interrelated strands — Number, Algebra, Measurement, Space, Statistics, and Probability.

In Foundation to Year 2, students focus on data collection and representation (statistics).
From Year 3 onwards, probability becomes a separate focus within the Statistics and Probability strand.

Across Years 3–6, students:

• Identify outcomes of chance experiments and describe their likelihood.
• Use everyday language to compare chance events.
• Conduct simple experiments using dice, spinners, and cards.
• Record results in lists, tables, or graphs to look for patterns.
• Begin to quantify chance and connect probability to fractions.

Each guide links curriculum content to practical classroom activities, clear teaching progressions, and success criteria.

For full curriculum details, see the Australian Curriculum Mathematics Overviews

Mathematics Manipulatives for Teaching Probability

Hands-on experiences are key to developing a real sense of chance and fairness.
Recommended manipulatives include:

• Dice and spinners – to generate random outcomes for comparison.
• Playing cards and counters – to model independent and dependent events.
• Coloured cubes or marbles in bags – for drawing, predicting, and recording outcomes.
• Coin tosses – to explore binary outcomes and long-run frequency.
• Tally charts and data tables – to record and analyse results.
• Digital probability simulators – for visualising large numbers of trials.

Encourage students to experiment, make predictions, and reflect on whether their results matched expectations — the essence of probabilistic reasoning.

Using Picture Books to Teach Probability Concepts

Picture books provide memorable contexts for exploring chance and fairness while introducing mathematical vocabulary in engaging ways.

Recommended titles include:

• “Probably Pistachio” – Stuart J. Murphy – introduces the concept of chance in everyday life.
• “That’s a Possibility!” – Bruce Goldstone – a visual, child-friendly explanation of probability.
• “Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs” – Judi Barrett – playful way to discuss possible and impossible events.
• “Equal Shmequal” – Virginia Kroll – explores fairness and balance through a classroom game.
• “My Lucky Day” – Keiko Kasza – prompts discussion about luck and random events.
• “The Coin Toss” – Brian J. Heinz – ideal for examining outcomes and probability experiments.

Integrate these stories into maths rotations or inquiry lessons to make probability language meaningful and connected to everyday experiences.

Common Student Difficulties in the Probability Strand

Probability can feel abstract to young learners, especially when outcomes are invisible or random.
Common difficulties include:

• Confusing chance with certainty – believing events “must” balance out in the short term.
• Assuming fairness when results are coincidental (“It landed heads three times, so tails is next”).
• Misinterpreting random variation – expecting perfect patterns in small samples.
• Limited vocabulary – overusing “maybe” instead of specific terms like likely or impossible.
• Difficulty linking experiments and theory – not realising long-run patterns show probability.

Teachers can address these by modelling fair experiments, repeating trials to show variability, using visuals, and prompting reflection:

“Did what happened match what we thought might happen?”

Encouraging students to record and discuss results strengthens both reasoning and communication.

Achievement Standards in the Probability Strand

Achievement standards describe what students are typically able to understand and do, and they form the basis for reporting student achievement.
Each Mathematics achievement standard is organised into paragraphs reflecting the six strands. Students’ mastery of chance concepts is judged against these descriptions.

In Mathematics, students progress along a curriculum continuum with an achievement standard at each level. The standard represents a satisfactory level of understanding—typically a C grade. Teachers report against these standards, noting that some concepts are introduced for extension and do not form part of formal grading.

Teaching probability in primary classrooms begins with helping students understand that chance and uncertainty are part of everyday life.
The A+ Teacher Club How to Teach Probability Concepts Guides are organised by year level, supporting teachers to unpack the probability curriculum and teach step by step — from describing possible outcomes in Year 3 to calculating likelihood using fractions and decimals in upper primary.

Each guide aligns with the Australian Curriculum v9, addresses common student misconceptions, and builds teacher confidence through clear, concept-based instruction that makes chance learning meaningful for students.